Sam Altman
CEO, OpenAI
We may have superintelligence in 'a few thousand days'
01 / THE ORIGINAL CLAIM
“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”
Sam Altman ·
Deadline given: a few thousand days (read generously as up to ~4,000 days)
02 / THE REALITY CHECK
PendingStill open. OpenAI's president now says 'Welcome to the AGI era', but even ARC Prize, which measured GPT-6 Astra's big jump, is 'not claiming that it is AGI', let alone superintelligence.
9.0 years left
03 / FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE
What actually happened.
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01
On 23 September 2024 Altman wrote that superintelligence could arrive 'in a few thousand days (!)', adding that 'it may take longer'.
ia.samaltman.com ↗ -
02
In January 2025 he wrote: 'We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it', and said OpenAI was turning its aim to superintelligence.
blog.samaltman.com ↗ -
03
In October 2025 he set internal goals of 'an automated AI research intern by September of 2026' and 'a true automated AI researcher by March of 2028', adding 'We may totally fail at this goal'.
x.com ↗ -
04
In September 2026 OpenAI said it had reached the intern goal: a system that does 'well-defined research tasks under human direction'.
engadget.com ↗ -
05
GPT-6 Astra shipped on 3 September 2026. Asked whether it marked AGI, Greg Brockman said 'I think it might be about this model' and closed the briefing with 'Welcome to the AGI era'. Days earlier, Altman had said OpenAI was 'not quite yet' there.
axios.com ↗ -
06
ARC Prize measured Astra at 62.7% on ARC-AGI-3 with the standard harness (99.9% with OpenAI's adapter) and said: 'we are not claiming that it is AGI'.
arcprize.org ↗
Where things stand
'A few thousand days' runs well into the 2030s (read generously, up to about 4,000 days, or September 2035) and was hedged with 'it may take longer', so it can't be judged yet. OpenAI has since set nearer targets: Altman set a March 2028 goal for a 'true automated AI researcher', and OpenAI claims to have hit its September 2026 'research intern' milestone. Independent measures show fast progress, but ARC Prize, which measured GPT-6 Astra, says it is 'not claiming that it is AGI'.
Inspect the original source capture
Evidence
- The Intelligence Age (23 Sep 2024) ia.samaltman.com ↗
- Altman on X: research intern Sept 2026, AI researcher Mar 2028 x.com ↗
- Engadget: OpenAI says it reached the research-intern goal engadget.com ↗
- The Decoder: Altman expects internal AGI by end of 2026 the-decoder.com ↗
- ARC Prize: Astra 62.7% / 99.9%, 'not claiming that it is AGI' arcprize.org ↗