Mustafa Suleyman
CEO, Microsoft AI; co-founder of DeepMind and Inflection AI
AI deepfakes and adaptive misinformation will hit the 2024 election, even savvy voters
01 / THE ORIGINAL CLAIM
“first, we will feel AI's impact at the next election. … My fear is that AI will undermine the information space with deepfakes and targeted, adaptive misinformation that can emotionally manipulate and convince even savvy voters and consumers.”
Mustafa Suleyman ·
Deadline given: "the next election" (2024)
02 / THE REALITY CHECK
FAKEAI didn't hit the 2024 election. There was no measurable effect on the result, and half of 78 documented AI uses weren't even deceptive.
Deadline passed 21 months ago
03 / FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE
What actually happened.
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01
Sep 5, 2023: In a Fortune op-ed promoting his book, Suleyman, then Inflection AI's CEO, predicted AI's impact would be felt at the 2024 election and urged a ban on AI in electioneering.
fortune.com ↗ -
02
Sep 19, 2024: The FEC voted not to open an AI rulemaking and issued an interpretive rule saying existing fraud law already covers AI-assisted media. No ban was adopted.
fec.gov ↗ -
03
Oct 2024: OpenAI said it had 'not observed any cases of election-related influence operations attracting viral engagement or building sustained audiences' through its models.
cdn.openai.com ↗ -
04
Nov 13, 2024: CETaS found no conclusive evidence that AI-generated content manipulated the US result, though it did amplify harmful narratives and polarization.
cetas.turing.ac.uk ↗ -
05
Dec 13, 2024: Kapoor and Narayanan's review of 78 AI election uses found half weren't deceptive, and the deceptive ones were cheap to make without AI.
knightcolumbia.org ↗
Why it didn't happen
The 2024 election came and went without the AI manipulation he predicted. Suleyman called for 'explicitly and promptly banning the use of AI and chatbots in electioneering'. Instead, the FEC declined in September 2024 to write new AI rules and relied on existing fraud law. The feared manipulation still didn't show up at scale. OpenAI saw no election influence operation using its models go viral, CETaS found no measurable AI effect on the US election, and half of 78 documented AI uses in 2024 elections weren't deceptive at all.
Inspect the original source capture
Evidence
- FEC (Sep 2024): no new AI rules; existing fraud law applies fec.gov ↗
- CETaS (Nov 2024): no measurable AI impact on US election cetas.turing.ac.uk ↗
- Meta (Dec 2024): AI content under 1% of fact-checked election misinformation about.fb.com ↗
- OpenAI (Oct 2024): no election influence op using its models went viral cdn.openai.com ↗