Leopold Aschenbrenner
Former OpenAI Superalignment researcher; founder, Situational Awareness LP
AGI by 2027 is 'strikingly plausible': models will do an AI researcher's job
01 / THE ORIGINAL CLAIM
“AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. … I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer. That doesn't require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph.”
Leopold Aschenbrenner ·
Deadline given: by 2027
02 / THE REALITY CHECK
Likely falseOpenAI's own target for a true automated AI researcher is March 2028, after this deadline. Today it has an 'intern' working 'under human direction'.
15 months left
03 / FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE
What actually happened.
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01
In June 2024 Aschenbrenner published the essay, predicting that 'by 2025/26, these machines will outpace many college graduates' and that superintelligence would arrive by the end of the decade.
situational-awareness.ai ↗ -
02
Part of that is on track: in March 2026, GPT-5.4 matched or beat industry professionals in 83% of GDPval comparisons across 44 occupations.
the-decoder.com ↗ -
03
OpenAI's own roadmap puts the full AI-researcher milestone after 2027: an 'automated AI research intern by September of 2026' and 'a true automated AI researcher by March of 2028'.
x.com ↗ -
04
In September 2026 OpenAI said it had reached the intern milestone, defined as 'a system that can carry out well-defined research tasks under human direction'.
engadget.com ↗ -
05
METR's best-measured model (April 2026) has a 50% time horizon of about 17 hours, but an 80% horizon of only about 3 hours on software tasks.
metr.org ↗
Why it's heading for a miss
The lab closest to the goal has scheduled it for after the deadline. Some of his 'straight lines' held: frontier models now match or beat professionals on 83% of GDPval task comparisons. But the key claim, AI doing the work of an AI researcher, isn't met. OpenAI says it has only an 'automated research intern' that works 'under human direction', and it has set March 2028 for a 'true automated AI researcher'. METR's best model finishes about 3-hour tasks with 80% reliability.