Sam Altman
CEO, OpenAI
In 2025, the first AI agents will 'join the workforce' and materially change company output
01 / THE ORIGINAL CLAIM
“We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies.”
Sam Altman ·
Deadline given: in 2025
02 / THE REALITY CHECK
FAKE2025 ended without agents materially changing company output. 95% of organizations saw zero return from generative AI, and only 39% reported any profit impact.
Deadline passed 9 months ago
03 / FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE
What actually happened.
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01
Jan 5, 2025: Altman made the prediction in the same post in which he said OpenAI is "now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it".
blog.samaltman.com ↗ -
02
June 10, 2025: Altman declared that "2025 has seen the arrival of agents that can do real cognitive work; writing computer code will never be the same."
blog.samaltman.com ↗ -
03
Aug 18, 2025: MIT's NANDA initiative reported that 95% of enterprise organizations had gotten zero return from their generative AI efforts, despite $35–40 billion invested.
theregister.com ↗ -
04
Sept 2025: Salesforce's Marc Benioff said AI agents let him cut support from 9,000 to about 5,000 heads. Salesforce's own research found LLM agents succeeded on only 58% of single-step tasks, and Gartner predicted over 40% of agentic AI projects would be canceled by the end of 2027.
theregister.com ↗ -
05
Nov 2025: McKinsey's State of AI survey found 23% of respondents scaling agentic systems somewhere, and only 39% reporting any EBIT impact from AI.
cxtoday.com ↗ -
06
Jan 28, 2026: Meta said output per engineer rose 30% since the start of 2025, mostly from agentic coding, which is a real change at one of the most AI-intensive companies.
fool.com ↗
Why it didn't happen
The test Altman set was 'materially change the output of companies', and by the end of 2025 that hadn't happened at scale. MIT's NANDA study found 95% of organizations got zero return from generative AI despite $35–40 billion invested. In McKinsey's 2025 survey only 23% were scaling agents anywhere, and just 39% reported any EBIT impact from AI. Gartner predicted over 40% of agentic AI projects would be canceled by 2027, and Salesforce's own research found LLM agents succeeded on only 58% of single-step tasks. The counterexamples come from AI-heavy companies reporting on themselves: Meta's +30% output per engineer and Salesforce's support cuts.
Inspect the original source capture
Evidence
- MIT NANDA: 95% of organizations saw zero return from genAI (Aug 2025) theregister.com ↗
- McKinsey: 23% scaling agents; 39% report any EBIT impact from AI (Nov 2025) cxtoday.com ↗
- Salesforce: support headcount cut from ~9,000 to ~5,000 with AI agents (Sept 2025) theregister.com ↗
- Meta: +30% output per engineer in 2025, mostly from agentic coding fool.com ↗