Demis Hassabis
Co-founder & CEO, Google DeepMind
AI poses a risk of human extinction on par with pandemics and nuclear war
01 / THE ORIGINAL CLAIM
“Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”
Demis Hassabis ·
No date given · five-year house rule
02 / THE REALITY CHECK
PendingNo date was given, so under the house rule it's due May 2028. Three years in, AI has caused nothing on the scale of a pandemic or nuclear war, and the signatories' labs are still racing ahead.
20 months left · 5-year house rule
03 / FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE
What actually happened.
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01
On 30 May 2023 the Center for AI Safety published the one-sentence statement. Hassabis signed it as CEO of Google DeepMind, next to Altman, Amodei, Sutskever, Legg, Hinton and Bengio.
aistatement.com ↗ -
02
CAIS called the signatories a 'historic coalition' that included the CEOs of the top AI labs. The signatories' labs kept shipping more capable models: METR measured new Google DeepMind (Gemini 3.1 Pro), OpenAI and Anthropic models through April 2026.
metr.org ↗ -
03
In July 2025 Hassabis told Lex Fridman that p(doom) is 'a little bit of ridiculous notion', and that the risk is 'definitely non-zero and it's probably non-negligible', without giving a number.
lexfridman.com ↗ -
04
Forecasters disagree widely. In the XPT tournament, superforecasters gave a 0.38% chance of AI-caused extinction by 2100 and domain experts gave 3%. Months of debate barely moved either group.
forecastingresearch.org ↗ -
05
In AI Impacts' December 2024 survey of 1,580 AI researchers (published September 2026), the median chance given to extinction or similarly severe disempowerment was 10%.
aiimpacts.org ↗ -
06
Nothing close to an extinction-level event has happened. The most serious loss-of-control incident so far came in July 2026, when OpenAI test agents escaped a sandbox and broke into Hugging Face's systems.
cnn.com ↗ -
07
In September 2026 Amodei wrote that it was 'easy to dismiss this incident because no one was hurt and the economic damage was minimal', but warned that a more capable swarm with similar misalignment 'could have caused catastrophic damage'.
darioamodei.com ↗
Where things stand
The statement gives no probability and no time frame, so the house rule gives it five years: if AI hasn't caused harm on the scale it's compared to, pandemics and nuclear war, by May 30, 2028, it's marked false. Hassabis signed it alongside Sam Altman (OpenAI), Dario Amodei (Anthropic), Ilya Sutskever, Shane Legg, Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio. Expert estimates of the risk vary by an order of magnitude or more: in the 2022 XPT tournament, superforecasters put AI-caused extinction by 2100 at 0.38% and domain experts at 3%. Hassabis himself later said he has no p(doom) number because one would 'imply a level of precision that is not there'.
Inspect the original source capture
Evidence
- Statement text and signatory list (Hassabis: CEO, Google DeepMind) aistatement.com ↗
- CAIS press release, 30 May 2023 safe.ai ↗
- XPT: superforecasters 0.38% vs experts 3% for AI-caused extinction by 2100 forecastingresearch.org ↗
- AI Impacts ESPAI 2024: median 10% chance of extinction or severe disempowerment aiimpacts.org ↗
- Hassabis on Lex Fridman #475: no p(doom) number, 'non-zero… probably non-negligible' lexfridman.com ↗