Elon Musk
Founder, xAI; CEO, Tesla & SpaceX
AI smarter than the smartest human by 2025, or within two years at most
01 / THE ORIGINAL CLAIM
“If you define AGI … as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years”
Elon Musk ·
Deadline given: next year, within two years
02 / THE REALITY CHECK
FAKEThe two-year window closed in April 2026 with no AI smarter than the smartest human. Musk has since moved the date to the end of 2026 or 2027.
Deadline passed 5 months ago
03 / FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE
What actually happened.
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01
On 8 April 2024, in a glitchy X Spaces interview with Nicolai Tangen, Musk said AGI defined as 'smarter than the smartest human' was 'probably next year, within two years'.
gulfnews.com ↗ -
02
After his February 2025 appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast, Business Insider reported that he now saw AI exceeding human intelligence 'in the next year or two'.
finance.yahoo.com ↗ -
03
In fairness, AI had started beating the best humans in narrow contests: at the September 2025 ICPC World Finals, OpenAI's system solved all 12 problems, one more than the best human team. That is a long way from being smarter than the smartest human across the board.
the-decoder.com ↗ -
04
At Davos on 22 January 2026 he moved it again: 'we might have AI that is smarter than any human by end of this year, and no later than next year'.
whatsuptesla.com ↗ -
05
On 25 March 2026, two weeks before the deadline, ARC-AGI-3 launched: 'Humans score 100%. Frontier AI scores 0.51%.'
arcprize.org ↗ -
06
By September 2026 OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra scored 62.7% on ARC-AGI-3 with the standard harness. ARC Prize said it is 'not claiming that it is AGI', and OpenAI's Greg Brockman would only say 'I think it might be about this model'.
arcprize.org ↗
Why it didn't happen
At the deadline, frontier models scored 0.51% on ARC-AGI-3, a new reasoning benchmark that humans solve completely. METR's best-measured model reliably (80%) finished software tasks of only about 3 hours. AI had beaten top humans in some narrow contests, like the 2025 ICPC programming finals, but not across the board. Musk himself treated the goal as unmet: at Davos in January 2026 he said AI smarter than any human 'might' arrive 'by end of this year, and no later than next year'. Even after big gains by September 2026, ARC Prize says it is 'not claiming' that GPT-6 Astra is AGI.
Inspect the original source capture
Evidence
- Reuters: 'probably next year, within two years' (Apr 2024) gulfnews.com ↗
- Musk at Davos, Jan 2026: 'by end of this year, and no later than next year' whatsuptesla.com ↗
- ARC-AGI-3 at launch: humans 100%, frontier AI 0.51% (25 Mar 2026) arcprize.org ↗
- METR: best 80% time horizon ~3 hours (Apr 2026 model) metr.org ↗
- Decoder: OpenAI says GPT-6 Astra 'might already qualify' as AGI by its own economic definition the-decoder.com ↗