Elon Musk
Founder, xAI; CEO, Tesla & SpaceX
There's a 10–20% chance AI will end humanity
01 / THE ORIGINAL CLAIM
“I think there's some chance that it will end humanity. I probably agree with Geoff Hinton that it's about 10% or 20% or something like that.”
Elon Musk ·
Deadline given: no deadline
02 / THE REALITY CHECK
OverhypedA borrowed 10–20% figure with no time frame or method, far above forecasters' estimates, repeated while xAI shipped frontier models without published safety testing.
10–20% vs. 0.38% (superforecasters, AI extinction by 2100)
03 / FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE
What actually happened.
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01
On 19 March 2024, joining the Abundance Summit by video, Musk put the chance that AI 'will end humanity' at 'about 10% or 20%', citing Geoff Hinton, and said the positive scenario outweighs the negative.
ca.news.yahoo.com ↗ -
02
At Cannes Lions in June 2024 he repeated a '10-20% probability of something terrible happening', adding: 'The glass is 80% full.'
deadline.com ↗ -
03
On Joe Rogan's podcast in February 2025 he said 'the probability of a good outcome is like 80%', which Business Insider reported as 'only a 20% chance of annihilation'.
finance.yahoo.com ↗ -
04
In July 2025 xAI released Grok 4 without documentation of its safety testing, and researchers from OpenAI and Anthropic called xAI's safety culture 'reckless'.
techcrunch.com ↗ -
05
In September 2026 Musk backed Amodei's call to slow AI development. At the All-In Summit, though, he argued against heavy regulation, and the WSJ reported he advised President Trump to oppose an industry-funded regulator.
cnbc.com ↗ -
06
For comparison, superforecasters in the XPT tournament put AI-caused extinction by 2100 at 0.38%, and domain experts put it at 3%.
forecastingresearch.org ↗
Why it was overhyped
Musk gave no time frame or method and said he was adopting Geoffrey Hinton's number; Business Insider noted he 'didn't mention how he calculated the risk'. XPT superforecasters put AI-caused extinction by 2100 at 0.38%, and domain experts at 3%. He has repeated versions of the figure since, while xAI launched Grok 4 in July 2025 without a published system card, which drew criticism from safety researchers at OpenAI and Anthropic.
Inspect the original source capture
Evidence
- Business Insider: 'some chance that it will end humanity… about 10% or 20%' ca.news.yahoo.com ↗
- Diamandis blog: Musk joined the Abundance Summit by video on 19 March 2024 diamandis.com ↗
- Deadline: Cannes Lions, June 2024, '10-20% probability' deadline.com ↗
- TechCrunch: Grok 4 shipped without a system card techcrunch.com ↗
- XPT: superforecasters 0.38% vs experts 3% forecastingresearch.org ↗