Mustafa Suleyman
CEO, Microsoft AI; co-founder of DeepMind and Inflection AI
An AI that turns $100,000 into $1 million on its own 'could be as little as two years away'
01 / THE ORIGINAL CLAIM
“Put simply, to pass the Modern Turing Test, an AI would have to successfully act on this instruction: “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment.” … Something like this could be as little as two years away.”
Mustafa Suleyman ·
Deadline given: 'as little as two years' (read generously as three)
02 / THE REALITY CHECK
FAKEMore than three years on, no AI has turned $100,000 into $1 million on its own, and in December 2025 Suleyman himself said agents 'don't really work yet'.
Deadline passed 2 months ago
03 / FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE
What actually happened.
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01
In a July 2023 op-ed, Suleyman (then CEO of Inflection AI) proposed the test and said it 'could be as little as two years away'. Fortune, citing Bloomberg, reported that he expected AI to pass it 'within the next two years'.
fortune.com ↗ -
02
In June 2025 Anthropic reported that Claude, running a real office vending shop, 'did not succeed at making money'. It lost the most on tungsten cubes sold below cost, and Anthropic said 'we would not hire Claudius'.
anthropic.com ↗ -
03
In phase two (December 2025), with better scaffolding and an AI 'CEO', negative-profit weeks were 'largely eliminated'. The scale was tiny: one memo from the AI 'CEO' showed $2,649 in revenue against a $15,000 quarterly target.
anthropic.com ↗ -
04
In a conversation recorded on 5 December 2025, Suleyman said 'agents don't really work yet', predicted they would come 'into view' in 'the next couple of years', and treated passing the Modern Turing Test as still to come.
theinnermostloop.substack.com ↗ -
05
In September 2026 GPT-6 Astra averaged a $15,515 final balance from $500 across six runs of Andon Labs' simulated vending business. That is real progress, but it is a simulation, not a $100k to $1M retail business.
the-decoder.com ↗
Why it didn't happen
Suleyman proposed the test in July 2023 and wrote that passing it 'could be as little as two years away'. Fortune, citing Bloomberg, reported that he expected it 'within the next two years'. We read that generously as three years, and the deadline passed in July 2026 with nothing close. Anthropic's real AI-run office shop 'did not succeed at making money' in its first phase (June 2025), and its second phase made only modest profits at a tiny scale. In December 2025 Suleyman said 'agents don't really work yet' and talked about passing the test as a future event. The strongest result so far is a simulation: GPT-6 Astra grew $500 to about $15,500 over a simulated year in Andon Labs' Vending-Bench 2.
Inspect the original source capture
Evidence
- MIT Technology Review op-ed, 14 Jul 2023 technologyreview.com ↗
- Anthropic Project Vend phase 1: 'did not succeed at making money' anthropic.com ↗
- Anthropic Project Vend phase 2: modest profits, tiny scale anthropic.com ↗
- Suleyman, Dec 2025: 'agents don't really work yet' theinnermostloop.substack.com ↗
- Andon Labs via The Decoder: GPT-6 Astra $500 to ~$15.5k in simulated Vending-Bench 2 the-decoder.com ↗